Last year (1/12/04) Outsellpredicted that 'The open access movement in scholarly and scientific publications will gain legitimacy as it transforms from a loose collection of disjointed initiatives into a new model backed by major universities and institutions worldwide.' Here's how it assesses that prediction this year (12/17/04): 'This issue continued to gain steam in 2004, with new open access offerings from Public Library of Science leading the way and making headlines. More importantly, we see evidence that research-funding organizations are starting to put their muscle behind the cause: National Institutes of Health in the public sector and Novartis in the private sector are among those that have built requirements of open access to the published research into their funding models.'
Here are some excerpts from its predictions for next year: 'Google Scholar...will take a bite out of traditional aggregation models. It will also grease the skids for the open access movement in scholarly publishing....Experimentation will continue in open access, driven by funding shifts, new alliances, and technology innovation à la Google Scholar. The concept of open access has caught the attention of the mainstream press, but there are many flavors of open access, and many flavors of change, so this will continue to be an area to watch for dramatic experimentation and innovation. We caution, however, that some of the innovation and experimentation is substantive while some is just window dressing. For example, we believe the "author pays" model of open access will not carry the day. Look for three things in particular: [1] Research funding organizations will throw their weight around. The National Institutes of Health is rolling out new policies that require the research it funds to be freely available. [2] Funding organizations will align with scientific societies. Scientific societies want to support open access but risk losing essential subscription revenues if open access catches on. However, their mission is often directly aligned with some of the public and non-profit institutions that underwrite much of the research that is done. If these two blocks of players can align and scratch each other's backs, both will win. [3] Back in the game. In the face of pressures from multiple directions, the major commercial scientific publishers such as Elsevier and Springer are finally jumping into the fray with some reasonably serious experimentation of their own.' (PS: These excerpts are from an Outsell mailing not yet online at its web site. If it moves online in the future, I'll add a link.)
Posted by
Peter Suber at 12/17/2004 05:47:00 PM.
The open access movement:
Putting peer-reviewed scientific and scholarly literature
on the internet. Making it available free of charge and
free of most copyright and licensing restrictions.
Removing the barriers to serious research.
I recommend the OA tracking project (OATP) as the best way to stay on top of new OA developments. You can read the OATP feed on a blog-like web page or subscribe to it by RSS, email, or Twitter. You can also help build the feed by tagging new developments you encounter.
