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John Houghton and eight co-authors, Economic implications of alternative scholarly publishing models: Exploring the costs and benefits, January 2009. A major (256 pp.) report to JISC.
From the press release:
From the summary on the landing page:
From the section on comparing costs and benefits (pp. 211f) in the body of the report:
From the conclusions and recommendations (pp. 231f):
PS: Also see our past posts on John Houghton's research on the economic impact of OA.
Update (2/6/09). For interactive what-if analysis, see the
online model which makes a small subset of the the EI-ASPM Project cost-benefit modelling available to those interested in further exploring results and wanting to explore national, sectoral or institutional costs and benefits. It runs as an executable application within MS Excel, by simply clicking on the file after downloading. Each of the model elements is presented as a single screen worksheet. Copies of the model can be saved locally to record results and each of the worksheet models can be printed as a single page. Simply enter your preferred values into the Variables column of the Parameters Table and the results will be recalculated automatically. You can TAB between the active cells.
Update (2/13/09). For a response from publishers, see the joint statement from the Publishers Association, the Association of Learned and Professional Society Publishers, and the International Association of Scientific, Technical and Medical Publishers, February 13, 2009.