Open Access News

News from the open access movement

Sunday, June 03, 2007

Case study on how an OA edition affects the sales of a print book

Tim O'Reilly, Free Downloads vs. Sales: A Publishing Case Study, O'Reilly Radar, June 1, 2007.  (Thanks to Cory Doctorow via Charles Bailey.)  Excerpt:

As part of our continued effort to understand the impact on book sales of the availability of free downloads, I wanted to share some data on downloads versus sales of the book Asterisk: The Future of Telephony, by Leif Madsen, Jared Smith, and Jim Van Meggelen, which was released for free download under a Creative Commons license.

Jeremy McNamara of, which operates one of the mirrors, provided us with download stats, which we were then able to compare with book sales. Our goal of course, is to help publishers understand whether free downloads help or hurt sales. The quick answer from this experiment is that we saw no definitive correlation, but there is little sign that the free downloads hurt sales. More than 180,000 copies were downloaded from Jeremy's mirror (which is one of five!), yet the book has still been quite successful, selling almost 19,000 copies in a year and a half. This is quite good for a technical book these days -- the book comes in at #23 on our lifetime-to-date sales list for the "class of 2005" (books published in 2005) despite being released at the end of September. You might argue that the book would have done even better without the downloads, especially given the success of asterisk and the importance of VoIP. But it's also the case that the book is far and away the bestseller in the category, far outperforming books on the same subject from other publishers.

Meanwhile, we saw a huge spike in downloads starting at the beginning of this year, but didn't see a corresponding drop in print book sales, other than the continued slow erosion that's typical of books in print (especially one that's heading towards a second edition.) However, we did see the book's first fall from grace, dropping from an average run rate of about a thousand copies a month to about six hundred back in March 2006 coming at about the same time that we start showing the free downloads, but we're not sure whether or not that is just because we don't have earlier download data -- we believe that the book was available online sooner after publication even though Jeremy didn't start his mirror till March. (Next time we do a book available for free download, we'll be careful to collect accurate data from the start of the project.) ...

P.S. If this kind of information floats your boat, TOC [Tools of Change for Publishing Conference] is the place to be. We're obviously very involved in the changes the internet is bringing to publishing, and are bringing together people who are driving those changes, rather than just waiting for them.

PS:  For this excerpt I had to omit much of the data and three graphs.  See the original post for all the details.  I agree with Cory Doctorow who called this the best-ever case-study on free book downloads' impact on sales.